Alright, let's get one thing straight right off the bat: this whole "gift" narrative around Meta (META) is giving me a serious case of the eye-roll. Some analyst, Julian Lin, is calling it a gift because... well, because management screwed up and created a buying opportunity? Give me a break. That’s like saying a dumpster fire is a "gift" because it keeps you warm at night.
The "Secular Growth" Fantasy
Lin, this "Best Of Breed Growth Stocks" guru (whatever that even means), is out there finding "undervalued companies with secular growth." Secular growth? In this economy? With Zuck in charge? That’s a bold claim, man. A very bold claim. I mean, the guy's got a track record of betting the farm on metaverse vaporware while the rest of the world is trying to figure out how to pay their grocery bills.
He says he looks for "strong balance sheets and management teams." Strong balance sheet, maybe. But a strong management team? With a straight face? Seriously? This is the same management team that thought Horizon Worlds was a good idea. The same team that keeps pivoting like a caffeinated toddler at a disco. And don’t even get me started on their advertising practices.
And what's with this "large probability of delivering large alpha relative to the S&P 500" garbage? It's like they just threw a bunch of finance buzzwords into a blender and hoped something palatable came out. Alpha? In this market? With the Fed printing money like it's going out of style? Good luck with that, pal.
The Illusion of Undervaluation
The core argument seems to be that Meta is somehow "undervalued." Undervalued compared to what? To its own inflated ego? To the pile of cash it's burning on VR headsets no one wants? I just don’t see it. I mean, yeah, the stock [ticker: META] might be down from its all-time highs (offcourse, what stock isn't?), but that doesn't automatically make it a screaming buy.
What about the competition? [ticker: GOOG] Google is still the king of search, [ticker: AMZN] Amazon dominates e-commerce and cloud, even [ticker: NVDA] Nvidia is printing money with AI chips while Zuck is busy building digital legs for avatars. Where does Meta truly stand in all of this, besides being a cautionary tale of corporate hubris?
And let's be real, the whole "growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurdles" thing sounds suspiciously like trying to have your cake and eat it too. It's like saying, "I only invest in companies that are both cheap and growing rapidly!" Well, duh. Everyone wants that. The trick is actually finding them.
But Hey, Maybe I'm Wrong...
Okay, okay, maybe I'm being too harsh. Maybe Zuck really has turned over a new leaf. Maybe Horizon Worlds will become the next big thing. Maybe pigs will fly.
I mean, Lin has a "beneficial long position" in Meta, so he's clearly got skin in the game. And hey, past performance is no guarantee of future results, right? So maybe, just maybe, this "gift" will actually turn out to be something valuable. But color me skeptical. I'm not holding my breath. As Julian Lin argues in his Seeking Alpha article, Meta Platforms: This Time Is Different, Very Different - I'm Buying The Gift (NASDAQ:META), perhaps this contrarian view holds some merit. But color me skeptical. I'm not holding my breath.
What if this is all just a massive pump-and-dump scheme? What if the "analyst" is just trying to goose the stock price so he can unload his shares at a profit? I’m not saying that’s what’s happening, but I'm not not saying it either.